China Outlook

For those selling into the Chinese market, it is crucial to understand the cost structures and export trends of the key exporters (especially Russia), and where the exports are moving within China. Russia’s explosive growth in timber harvesting and sawmill output has led to a surge in Russian exports to China since 2014. The expected demand for softwood logs and lumber in China could tax some countries’ export potential at times over the next few years. With its improved competitiveness, Russia has become the market leader.

This report will answer the following questions and more:

  • How much domestic Chinese softwood fiber is available to supply Chinese markets?
  • What is the expected demand (and by segment) for imported softwood logs and lumber to 2023?
  • How much more fiber can we expect from Russia and other exporting countries, and for how long?
  • Will China need more wood from sources other than Russia (and current suppliers)?
  • How competitive are imported Russian logs and lumber in China versus some of the other major exporters?
  • How is China using Russia’s/other countries’ imported wood (in what end-use segments and how does it differ by species)?
  • Where is Russian supply going within China versus other suppliers (ocean ports versus inland regions)?
  • What is the impact on Russian and European wood products imports (e.g., block trains) of the One Belt/One Road initiative?
  • What will happen with China’s construction and housing market, and is it sustainable?
  • What is the export outlook in key countries for those currently fulfilling China’s log/lumber needs, including Russia, the U.S. South (SYP), South America (taeda and radiata pine), New Zealand/Australia (radiata pine), B.C. Coast/U.S. Pacific Northwest (hemlock and Douglas-fir), Europe (Scandinavia, Western and Eastern Europe), and Western Canada (SPF)?
  • What is the forecast for log and lumber prices in China?

What’s included:

  • Perspectives on the changing supply chain in China
  • End-use segments in China for imported timber
  • Major geographic regions in China for imported timber
  • Impacts of the “One Belt/One Road” Initiative
  • Highlights of the growth in the Russian timber harvesting and sawmilling industry
  • A summary of Russian and other log and lumber imports to China by port
  • An analysis of the competitiveness of Russian logs and lumber in the Chinese market

Highlights

  • Russian exports to China and other markets will affect your business
    The quick emergence of Russia as a low-cost exporter has caught many by surprise following the 60% devaluation of the ruble. The Russian industry has responded quickly and is reinvesting in new equipment that will further solidify its low-cost base. With surging exports to China, exporters need to better understand the competitiveness of Russian supply, and the geographical and end-use segments being targeted in China by Russian exporters. Since Russian log and lumber exports have the greatest potential to impact trade flows and prices over the next few years, company marketing and export plans need to consider what to expect in China as Russian exports expand.
  • China is running out of wood and will need increased imports
    While China’s domestic forest harvest is decreasing, its demand for imported logs and lumber is rising. This is good news for exporters, but Russian exports — especially of softwood lumber — have taken the bulk of the increase. China’s market demand and import outlook will be assessed in relation to the potential supply from Russia and other exporting countries. Included in the analysis will be the reach of Russian exports due to shipping more kiln-dried and higher-valued lumber, as well as the impact of block trains and the One Belt/One Road initiative.
  • The only report of its kind
    The best way to navigate China’s changing market requirements and competitive supply is through strategic information. This report will deliver market analysis/cost data on Russian supply and Chinese market trends/imports, along with realistic forecasts. It will contain a wealth of never before-published information and insightful analysis on Russian supply, the Chinese market and distribution trends, and competition. Our mission? To help you make better, more informed business decisions.

China’s Import Demand for Softwood Logs and Lumber to 2023 will enable you to:

  • Obtain a five-year perspective on China’s market and demand for
  • imported logs and lumber
  • Assess the competitiveness of Russian log/lumber exports to China
  • Analyze/understand competitive threats in China from Russian and
  • other exports
  • Develop and/or refine export market strategies to China
  • Acquire supply, demand, cost/price histories and forecasts by exporting
  • country to China
  • Identify potential geographic or end-use segments in China that could see
  • increased Russian and/or other exports
  • Obtain a strategic advantage in your company’s business plan through a
  • through understanding of the role of Russian and/or other exports in China
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