Timber Supply Dynamics

The timber inventory situation in the US South is having a profound Impact on timber markets.

The US South timber inventory levels have risen sharply over the past decade. Depressed harvests during the Global Financial Crisis coupled with higher productivity on the managed pine plantation resource has created significant imbalance in the Southern timber markets. Sawtimber stumpage prices have fallen to the same levels as prices during the early 1990s on a nominal basis and the lowest levels in over 35 years on an inflation-adjusted basis.

Southern Timber Supply Dynamics Will Shift in Coming Years

Looking forward, demand on the Southern timber resource will increase. Supply constraints in other North American producing regions have led to significant investment in the South’s forest products industry. The increase in demand will not be distributed evenly across the South and will result in contrasting supply conditions across the region, with inventory levels declining in some regions while others remain elevated. This will have a direct impact on regional timber prices, wood costs for the forest products industry and timberland investment decisions.

What’s included

  • A Comprehensive Timber Supply and Demand Study with In-depth Analysis
  • An extensive modeling collaboration between Timberland Appraisal and FEA
  • Individual supply models were developed for seven regions in the US South incorporating the latest timber inventory information with an integrated outlook on timber demand
  • A 15-y ear outlook on important timber resource characteristics such as standing inventory volume, timberland acreage, age-class, harvests by end-use and product and timber prices on a region-by-region basis

Highlights

  • Questions Addressed
    • Where has the timber inventory expansion been the greatest?
    • Where are the most productive softwood resources located?
    • Which regions will see the largest increase in harvest levels?
    • Which regions have the greatest supply available for future capacity expansions?
    • How will shifting age-classes on the pine plantation resource impact timber supply?
    • Which regions will see the strongest timber prices over the next fifteen years?
    • Which regions will see the weakest?
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